Doctor Copper’s costly bill

As the demand for the non-ferrous metal grows, driven by the trends towards energy transition and electrification, prices are rocketing too. In order to fulfil the request, recycling technologies appear to be the only reasonable and effective option, given the high costs and impacts of mining activities.

The future of copper

Also quoted by corporate sources, a recent Standard & Poor report – dubbed The future of copper – forecasts that the demand for this raw material is expected to double over the next decade, rocketing from the current 25 million to some 50 million tonnes by 2035 (1). At the same time prices are expected to rise too, after surging to a record-high last March, while at the end of June, Goldman Sachs, cited by Bloomberg, suggested they might mark a 10,050 dollars per tonne top in August. The reasons are numerous and energy transition is undoubtedly among them, but Donald Trump’s moves are also to be taken into account. In fact, as CBS News reported, the tycoon has announced a plan to impose a 50% duty tariff on US copper imports (2) The effects are predictable: a significant price increase «for everything from appliances and electronics to cars and home repairs». On top of that, according to such independent think-tanks as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the measure could trigger inflation, should companies pass the extra-costs they bear along to private consumers.

Here, there, everywhere

While waiting for the Whitehouse’s final decision – tariffs are allegedly to be put in place next August, 1^st – experts and analysts worldwide are already at work to identify a suitable solution in order to address the growing global need for copper. On the one hand the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emission by 2050 Scenario (NZE) indicates that 50% of copper demand «will be dedicated to clean energy technologies by 2040» and that therefore «the overall global demand is projected to grow by at least 50% by 2050». On the other hand, it has to be noticed that the non-ferrous metal is ubiquitous, thanks to its malleability, ductility, conductivity (70% of it is dedicated to electrical and communication purposes) and can be found at the very heart of power generation and transmission (44%); construction and buildings (20%); electrical equipment or electronic devices (14%). Last but not least, it serves the needs of the automotive and mobility industry, and especially that of EVs (12%) plus further niches such as those of fine arts, jewellery, musical instruments (3).

Under pressure

Such a wide range of possible application, and of course its most difficult replacement, makes its availability critical and scarcer. To invest in recycling technologies could soon become mandatory. Focusing on this topic, the Milan-based strategic consultancy firm Ollum began with pointing out that to find a copper deposit today is more than simply challenging. Quoting a S&P’s study, Ollum emphasized that 239 new mines were discovered between 1990 and 2023, but only 14 «date back to the last decade» and could thus represent a mere «3.5% of the total copper tonnage». Those discovered between 1990 and 2000 could instead «account for 70%». In addition to that, it takes time for a deposit to effectively become productive: at least 30 years are required nowadays, given the current rigorous environmental regulations, and not to mention «the growing resistance from local communities». Ollum estimated that «approximately five tons of CO₂ are generated» for every single tonne of material extracted, «two or four times the impact of steel». Water consumption is an issue too, since 500,000 litres of water are consumed to produce one tonne of copper only. In terms of emissions, the smelting phase is the most polluting step of the process and its impact could be significantly mitigated (-30%) if the energy used by smelting plants came from renewable sources.

Circularity is the answer

Ollum also underlined that some of the richest copper deposits worldwide are located in such countries as Chile, Peru or Argentina, which are affected by a «chronic water stress», whereas «extreme weather events» or other hydrogeological phenomena add «increasing operational risks». Recycling might provide an answer but from this point of view technologies are still far from being reliable. The Italian company stated that «scrap production covers about 30% of overall demand», currently, and although brass «contains up to 60% copper» and could theoretically represent a valuable source, no successful industrial separation system is, so far, at sight. Nevertheless, copper can be 100% recycled without losing any of its inherent properties and at the same time saving «up to 85% of the energy needed for mining and extraction», according to the World Resources Institute (4). The question is now how to ensure a satisfactory amount of recyclable material and researchers think that an interesting opportunity is represented by e-waste (end-of-life electronic waste) whose stream could be as high as 62 million tonnes a year. In Europe, the EU has therefore implemented the End-of-Life Vehicles Directive. It mandates «that all end-of-life vehicles achieve a minimum of 95% recovery and 85% recycling based on their average weight, including materials like copper».

A boost from policy makers

Something similar is also taking place in the United States, where recycling initiatives are promoted by government agencies and companies, as well as Federal projects, whose aim is that to encourage «the recovery and reuse of raw materials». Elsewhere, the China Resource Recycling Group is pushing «to improve nationwide recycling efforts of metals, including copper from end-of-life vehicles, home appliances, electronic waste, solar panels and wind turbines». The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has demonstrated that attractive results could be achieved by «integrating advanced processing technologies with significantly improved recycling rates». This would in fact allow two-thirds of the available copper scrap to be reused by 2040; and the «additional recovery of over six million tons of copper from landfills each year». To reach these targets and meet the growing demand for copper, both the MIT and the World Resources Institute warned that «the global end-of-life copper recycling rates will need to double from the current levels (32%) to 66%». As for end-of-life vehicles or ELVs, the International Copper Association estimated that 8% of copper produced globally is used in vehicles; and the European industry is not excepted. ELVs represent 7% of end-of-life copper in waste (3% for ICEs and 5% for new electrical engines). Underlining that «copper recycling offers a great opportunity of value retention» across the European Union, the Association estimated that the 300, 000 tonnes of «unrecovered copper from ELV separation and shredding results in losses of six billion euros», which translate into as much as «2% of total value losses from copper separation and shredding» in the whole European Union» (5).